Futures Spread Arbitrage from Scratch: Cross-Exchange Spreads and Spot–Futures Basis
A practical 8-lesson course on futures price spreads: spot, perpetual and dated contracts, basis and cash-and-carry to expiry, cross-exchange perp–perp spreads, hedging with spot, finding setups in the P2P.Army screener, execution with order books and fees, and risks — from widening spreads to closed withdrawals.
Antonio Merkle
What you will learn
- Understand the difference between spot, perps and dated futures and calculate basis
- Build a cash-and-carry trade and calculate its return to expiry
- Assess a cross-exchange perp–perp spread and its chances of converging
- Hedge spot with futures and choose the trade direction
- Find and check setups in the P2P.Army futures screener
- Enter and exit with order books, slippage, fees and funding in mind
Lessons
- 1.Spot, perpetual and dated futures: basis, contango and backwardationOne coin trades on three markets at once: spot, the perpetual future and a dated future with an expiry date. The difference between their prices — the basis — is the source of every spread in this course. Using real Binance prices, we look at why the BTC quarterly future costs more than spot and how much that is per year.9 min read
- 2.Where price spreads between exchanges come fromPrices are aligned by arbitrageurs who buy cheaper and sell higher. A spread lives where something gets in their way: a thin order book, closed withdrawals, capital controls, panic. We look at the causes of spreads on real cases — from a 95% premium on Upbit after a hack to a $300 ETH price gap between Binance and Hyperliquid.8 min read
- 3.Cash-and-carry: the basis between spot and a quarterly futureCash-and-carry is the only trade in this course where convergence is guaranteed by the contract rules: at expiry the dated future is settled against the index. We calculate it on real Binance prices from October 31, 2026 and see how much of 5% a year remains after fees and margin.8 min read
- 4.Cross-exchange perp–perp spread: entry, convergence and exitThe same perpetual future costs different amounts on two exchanges. We buy the cheap one, sell the expensive one and wait for prices to converge. On a real pair we look at what the result is made of and why a spread may never converge to zero.9 min read
- 5.Spot + futures: hedging with spot and the three trade directionsA spot leg pays no funding and cannot be liquidated — so spot + futures setups are simpler and sturdier than perp + perp, but need more capital. We look at the screener’s three directions, hedging coins you already hold, and real spot–perp spreads on BTC and ETH.8 min read
- 6.How to find spreads in the P2P.Army futures screenerThe screener combines spot and futures from dozens of exchanges into pairs and sorts them by price spread. We read the table on real rows, the filters, the pair page and a checklist: why a 5% spread on a sub-cent coin is more often a trap than an opportunity.10 min read
- 7.Executing and calculating a trade: order book, slippage, fees and fundingThe spread in the table is the best prices, not your fill price. We look at how the order book turns a 1.5% spread into a smaller number, how to open two legs without being left with one, and calculate the whole trade from entry to exit.9 min read
- 8.Spread arbitrage risks: widening instead of converging, liquidation and closed withdrawalsA spread is money nobody has taken. Sometimes because they were not fast enough, but more often because taking it is costly or dangerous. We look at the risks of spread trades and cases when neutral positions lost money — from a $300 ETH price gap between exchanges to the closure of BitMEX.9 min read
One coin trades at once on spot, perpetual and dated futures across dozens of exchanges, and the prices almost never match. The course teaches you to tell spreads that must converge (a dated future’s basis by expiry) from those that can last for weeks (cross-exchange spreads on thin markets), and to calculate a trade honestly — with fees, slippage and funding.
BTC and ETH prices and quarterly basis come from Binance’s public API on October 31, 2026. Screenshots are taken in the English P2P.Army interface: the screener table and pair page on October 6, 2026 with that day’s real data, public blocks on October 31, 2026. The numbers illustrate the method rather than the current market.
We do not promise income: there is no “percent a day” and no monthly projections, and the large spreads in the table are treated as potential traps. The screener’s landing page is free; the table, spread history and alerts are part of the DEX/CEX plan.